WSJ reports on Polymarket and Kalshi, examining how most traders lose money on prediction markets while a small group of sophisticated traders capture disproportionate profits. The story reveals why prediction markets concentrate gains among experienced participants with superior market knowledge.
Strategy
Why Almost Everyone Loses–Except a Few Sharks–On Prediction Markets
Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi exhibit extreme winner-take-most dynamics, where sophisticated traders with superior information capture outsized profits while retail participants consistently lose money.
Monday, May 4, 2026 12:00 PM UTC2 MIN READSOURCE: Hacker NewsBY sys://pipeline
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