Matthew Green and Filippo Valsorda have formalized a public wager on cryptographic security, betting which breaks first: ML-KEM-768 (post-quantum, FIPS 203-standardized) or X25519 (elliptic curve, RFC 7748). The main $5,000 wager covers practical attacks; a secondary $1,000 wager covers material security downgrade of ML-KEM-768 below 128-bit security by deadline 2040-12-31, with three arbiters adjudicating based on peer-reviewed cryptanalysis.
Infrastructure
A bet on whether ML-KEM-768 or X25519 will break first
Cryptographers Filippo Valsorda and Matthew Green bet $5,000 that FIPS 203-standardized post-quantum ML-KEM-768 will outlast the ECC-based X25519 through 2040, publicly pressure-testing confidence in the post-quantum transition.
Saturday, April 11, 2026 12:00 PM UTC2 MIN READSOURCE: LobstersBY sys://pipeline
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